Calculating Odds and Outs in Poker

by PokerFanatic | posted in Poker articles

In Poker, every time it’s your turn to act you can choose to either fold, call, or raise. What is the correct play? For the purposes of this article, we will assume the only decision to make is to either call or fold, not raise, as this will form the basis of calculating Poker Odds. Deciding whether or not you are going to continue with a hand post flop requires calculation of pot odds. Calculation of Pot odds is fundamental in poker because its used to determine the profitability of winning the hand over the long run, which is also referred to as positive expected value.

Making the correct play is influenced on whether you are getting correct odds to continue with the hand. Generally speaking, calling is the correct play if you are getting higher pot odds, just like folding is the correct play if you are getting lower lower pot odds.

Instant hand odds and pot odds advice

The math used to calculate if you are getting correct odds to call requires that you know the Pot odds and Hand Odds.

Pot Odds is very straightforward to work out. Pot Odds is the ratio of the money you’ll get back from the pot if you win the hand compared to the size of the bet which you have to call. The formula for Pot Odds is as follows:

Pot Odds = $ In Pot / Current Bet (expressed in ratio)

For example, if there is $10 in the pot and the bet on the turn is $7.50 to you, you are getting Pot Odds of aprroximately 2.3 to 1. 17.50 / 7.50 = 2.33 which is expressed as a ratio. If you have to call a pot size bet, then you are getting Pot Odds of 2:1. If you think of Pot Odds in terms of the size of the bet in relation to the pot, it becomes a lot easier. Really, that’s all there is to it.

Hand Odds is the probability of making the best hand in Texas Hold’em. Calculating Hand Odds is a little trickier compared to Pot Odds because you don’t know your opponents’ cards, so you could be counting outs to make the best hand when in fact some of the outs may not count toward making the best hand. For example, you could have a low card flush draw and think you are drawing to the best hand if you hit the flush, when in fact your opponent was drawing to the nut flush draw, which is why its critical to play only good cards pre flop to avoid these situations. When calculating Hand Odds, make sure you only consider cards that will likely give you the best hand at showdown.

Lets move on to Counting Outs which is fundamental to calculating Poker Odds and Hand Odds.

If you have a flush draw (FD) then you have 9 outs to make the flush.
If you have an open-ended-straight-draw (OESD) then you have 8 outs to make the straight.
If you have a gut-shot straight draw (GSSD) then you have 4 outs to make the straight.

Whenever you have common draws like this it’s very straightforward to count the number of outs you need in order to make the best hand. Where it gets a little more complicated is when you have combo draws like a flush draw with a gut-shot straight draw, or a flush draw with 2 overcards assuming the opponent only has a top pair type of hand.

The formula for Hand Odds is as follows:

Hand Odds = (46 – Outs) / Outs (expressed in ratio).

There is 46 unseen cards after the turn (52 – 2 hole cards – 3 flop cards – 1 turn card = 46). Then you will need to count the outs.

Here is an example. Let’s say you have a flush draw plus a gut-shot straight draw on the turn, you have 9 outs with the flush draw and 4 outs with the gut-shot.

The Hand Odds that you’ll hit your combo flush/gut-shot draw on the next card = (46-13) / 13 = about 2.5:1.

Comparing Hand Odds vs Pot Odds – Should I continue with this hand?

That is the question you need to be always asking yourself if you expect to make the correct plays which have a positive expected value. ie. plays which will make money over the long run. Do the math to determine if the Pot Odds are higher then the Hand Odds. If the Pot odds are not bigger than the Hand odds the correct play is to fold. If you are getting correct Pot Odds then call. The only time you would consider calling with incorrect Pot Odds is if Implied Odds influence your decision. You may not be getting the correct Pot Odds to call on the turn, but if you consider the Implied Odds (which takes into account future betting) then it could be profitable to call when playing against loose players who will call their entire stack if you make the flush (or a better hand). That’s a basic way of explaining Implied Odds and it would be a costly mistake to overestimate Implied Odds, but this is really a topic for another article.

What if I am first to act?

Although you should be comparing Hand Odds and Pot Odds to determine whether or not you should continue with a hand, it should also influence your betting decisions when you are first to act in the hand. When you get better at playing poker, you will get better at hand reading opponent, so when you bet you want to be giving them bad odds to draw to a better hand. For example, say you know your opponent is on a flush draw on the turn. You are confident that you have the best hand and don’t have one of the suited flush cards, so there is 9 outs to improve their hand. The Hand Odds for your opponent is 46-9 / 9 = 4.11 (approx. 4 to 1 odds). As long as you bet more then half pot you are giving them incorrect odds to make the call (assuming its not a combo draw).

Bad players will call when they are getting incorrect odds, and its small edges like that which will make you money over the long run. Even if your opponent calls with incorrect odds to draw to a better hand and they suckout, you need to remember that more often then not they will not get that miracle card and the bet sizing you used was a profitable play. Use your skills at the 3d poker site pkr.com and get a $800 bonus. Your first deposit will be matched 100% up to $800 with the pkr bonus code: igsbonus
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